India is the world’s third largest producer and third largest consumer of electricity. Earlier this year, Government of India announced that India has moved from being power deficit to become power surplus. With a maximum demand of 185 GW of electricity, the present installed capacity is 382 GW as of 31st March 2021. India has a surplus power generation capacity but lacks adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure. India’s electricity sector is dominated by thermal power plants, which during the 2018-19 fiscal year produced about three-quarters of the country’s electricity. The use of renewable energy (RE) sources – primarily wind and solar generation – is poised to grow significantly and India’s renewable energy growth rate is the highest in the world.
How much surplus and how long?
India’s renewable resources are abundant, but the output of solar photovoltaic and wind is variable, and in the case of wind in particular, subject to uncertainty. Taking in view the capacity outage, old thermal capacity going offline and inability of Renewable Energy (RE) supply to meet India’s peak electricity demand in the evening, this leaves the available firm capacity to around 200 GW versus the 185 GW demand. With a growth of nearly 6% CAGR (10 GW) in peak demand anticipated every year, the current capacity surplus as well as the planned installation of non-coal firm capacity might not be enough to meet the peak demand as early as 2022.
Is Solar Power the solution?
The solar energy sector in India offers potentially enormous capacity, though little of this potential has so far been exploited. Solar power plants require nearly 2.4 hectares (0.024 km2) land per MW capacity, which is similar to coal-fired power plants when life cycle coal mining, consumptive water storage and ash disposal areas are taken into account, and hydropower plants when the submergence area of the water reservoir is included. Solar plants with 1,330 GW capacity could be installed in India on 1% of its land (32,000 square km). Large tracts of land that is unproductive, barren and devoid of vegetation exist in all parts of India, exceeding 8% of its total area. A major disadvantage of solar power is that it produces electricity only in daylight, and not during night time or cloudy daytime. This disadvantage can be overcome by installing grid storage, such as pumped-storage hydroelectricity. Solar thermal power plants with thermal storage are also emerging as cheaper and cleaner load following power plants than fossil fuel power plants. Also read this interesting feed: #nightsolarpv for science behind solar panels drawing energy at night.
The Power Roadmap
The Government of India plans to establish renewable energy capacity of 500 GW by 2030. It has already announced a plan to set up an inter-ministerial committee under NITI Aayog to forefront research and study on energy modelling. The GOI has released its roadmap to achieve around 225 GW capacity of RE by 2022 that includes 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind. Coal-based power-generation is expected to witness total installed capacity addition of 50 GW and biomass and hydropower addition of 15 GW by 2022. Using advanced weather and power system modelling designed specifically for this project, the multi-institutional study team will explore the operational impacts of meeting India’s RE targets and identify actions that are favourable for integration. As per the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimates, by 2029-30 the share of renewable energy generation would increase from 18% to 44%, while that of thermal is expected to reduce from 78% to 52%. The International Energy Agency estimates India will add between 600 GW to 1,200 GW of additional new power generation capacity before 2050.
References:
Understanding India’s power capacity – M T Parray & R Tongia
Power Sector in India – IBEF, Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
